क्वानटिटेटिभ टाइटेनिङ (Quantitative Tightening): कसिलो मौद्रिक नीतिको नयाँ उपकरण

Siddha Raj Bhatta

कोरोना महामारीको समयमा विश्वका केन्द्रीय बैंकहरुले बजारमा तरलता वृद्धि गर्नका विभिन्न नीतिगत दरहरु घटाउनुका साथै परिमाणात्मक सहजीकरणमार्फत उल्लेख्य मात्रामा बजारमा सहज मुद्रा अर्थात इजि मनि पठाएका थिए । यसका लागि केन्द्रीय बैंकहरुले सम्पत्ति खरिद योजनाहरुमार्फत बजारबाट ऋणपत्रहरु खरिद गर्ने, बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाहरुलाई पुनरकर्जा सुविधा उपलब्ध गराउने लगायतका कदमहरु लिएका थिए । यस्ता विस्तारकारी नीतिगत उपायहरुका कारण केन्द्रीय बैंकहरुको वासलातको आकारमा उल्लेख्य वृद्धि हुन गएको थियो । कोरोना महामारीको समयमा प्रदान गरिएका विभिन्न तरलता सुविधाहरुबाट फेडरल रिजर्भको वासलात ४ ट्रिलियन अमेरिकी डलरबाट करिब ९ ट्रिलियन अमेरिकी डलर पुगेको थियो भने युरोपेली केन्द्रीय बैंकको वासलात समेत सन् २०२२ मा ९ ट्रिलियन युरो अर्थात उक्त क्षेत्रको कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनको ७० प्रतिशतसम्म पुगेको थियो ।

पछिल्लो समयमा भने विश्व अर्थतन्त्रमा देखा परेको उच्च मुल्यवृद्धि नियन्त्रणका लागि केन्द्रीय बैंकहरुले मौद्रिक नीतिको कसिलो कार्यदिशा अवलम्वन गर्दै नीतिगत दर वृद्धिमार्फत अल्पकालीन ब्याजदरमा वृद्धि गर्ने तथा कोभिडको समयमा सिर्जना भएको इजि मनि विस्तारै घटाउदै लगेका छन् । यसरी परिमाणात्मक सहजीकरणबाट सिर्जना भएको इजि मनि घटाउने प्रक्रियालाई परिमाणात्मक कसाइ अर्थात ‘क्वानटिटेटिभ टाइटेनिङ’ नाम दिइएको छ । यस्तो प्रक्रिया अन्तर्गत केन्द्रीय बैंकहरुले आफ्नो वासलातको आकार घटाउन अर्थात बजारमा प्रवाह भएको तरलता प्रशोचन गर्नका लागि दुइवटा उपायहरु अपनाउने गरेका छन् । पहिलो, बजारमा ऋणपत्रहरु विक्रि गर्ने जसलाई  ‘एक्टिभ टाइटेनिङ’ नाम दिइएको छ र दोस्रो, ऋणपत्रहरुको भुक्तानी अवधि सकिने वेला नविकरण नगर्ने र उक्त रकमलाई आफ्नो वासलातबाट हटाउने जसलाई ‘प्यासिभ टाइटेनिङ’ नाम दिइएको छ । यसरी बजारको तरलता कम गर्नका लागि वासलताको आकार घटाउने कार्यलाई ‘वासलातको सामान्यीकरण’ नामले समेत चिनिन थालेको छ ।

‘क्वानटिटेटिभ टाइटेनिङ’ को मुख्य उद्देश्य वित्तीय बजारमा उपलब्ध तरलता प्रशोचन गर्दै मूल्यवृद्धिमा परेको चाप कम गर्ने हो । केन्द्रीय बैंकको नीतिगत दरमा गरिने वृद्धिलाई यसले थप सहयोग गर्ने गर्दछ । यस अर्थमा यो उपकरणलाई कसिलो मौद्रिक नीतिको गैह–परम्परागत उपकरणको रुपमा लिन सकिन्छ । 

कसिलो मौद्रिक नीतिका सम्वन्धमा चर्चामा आएको अर्को शब्द ‘टेपरिङ’ (Tapering) हो । यसले परिमाणात्मक सहजीकरणको दरमा कमी ल्याउने भन्ने बुझाँउदछ । तसर्थ, ‘टेपरिङ’ र ‘क्वानटिटेटिभ टाइटेनिङ’ उस्तै उस्तै उपकरणजस्तो बुझ्ने गरिएतापनि आधारभुत रुपमा यी फरक फरक प्रकृतिका उपकरणहरु हुन । ‘टेपरिङ’ले वित्तीय बजारमा प्रवाह भैरहेको तरलताको विस्तारमा कमी ल्याउने गर्दछ भने ‘क्वानटिटेटिभ टाइटेनिङ’ले बजार तरलता नै घटाउने गर्दछ ।  

कोभिडपश्चात विश्व अर्थव्यवस्थामा देखिएको उच्च मूल्यवृद्धिको समस्या समाधानका लागि विभिन्न केन्द्रीय बैंकहरुले ‘क्वानटिटेटिभ टाइटेनिङ’को उपयोग गरेका छन् । फेडरल रिजर्भले सर्वप्रथम २०२२ मे महिनामा उक्त उपकरण कार्यान्वयनमा ल्याउने घोषणा गरेको हो । पछिल्लो समयमा मूल्यवृद्धि विगत चार दशककै उच्च भएपश्चात फेडले अल्पकालीन ब्याजदर वृद्धि गर्ने तथा बजारमा उपलब्ध तरलता प्रशोचन गर्दै जाने निर्णय लिएको हो । सोही बमोजिम २०२२ जुनमा फेडरल रिजर्भले करिब १ ट्रिलियन अमेरिकी डलर बराबरको ऋणपत्रमा पुनर्लगानी नगरी उक्त ऋणपत्रहरु परिपक्व हुन दिने घोषणा गर्यो । फेडरल रिजर्भले यस्तो कदमको प्रभाव नीतिगत दरमा गरिने करिब २५ आधार विन्दुको वृद्धि सरह हुने अनुमान गरेको थियो । युरोपेली केन्द्रीय बैंकले समेत मूल्य स्थायित्वमा मध्यमकालीन जोखिम सिर्जना भएका कारण सम्पत्ति खरिद अन्तर्गत भएको तरलता प्रवाह सन् २०२३ जुनसम्ममा मासिक १५ अर्ब पाउण्डका दरले प्रशोचन गर्ने निर्णय गरेको छ । यस्तो कदमका पछाडी बजारमा उपलब्ध अधिक तरलतामा प्रशोचन गर्ने, केन्द्रीय बैंकको विस्तारित वासलातबाट पर्ने नकारात्मक असरहरु कम गर्ने तथा कसिलो मौद्रिक नीतिका लागि कोभिड समयमा दिइएका विभिन्न तरलता सुविधाहरु फिर्ता गर्ने उद्देश्य युरोपेली केन्द्रीय बैंकको रहेको छ ।  यस्तो नीतिगत उपकरणका कारण फेडरल रिजर्चको वासलात अप्रिल २०२२ को ८.९७ ट्रिलियन अमेरिकी डलरबाट घटेर जुन २०२३ ८.३८ अमेरिकी डलर कायम भएको छ भने युरोपेली केन्द्रीय बैंकको वासलात जुन २०२२ को ८.८ ट्रिलियन युरोबाट घटेर २०२३ जुनमा ७.७१  ट्रिलियन युरो कायम भएको छ । ‘क्वानटिटेटिभ टाइटेनिङ’ उपकरणको उपयोग गर्ने अन्य मुलुकहरुमा क्यानाडा, इग्लयाण्ड, नेदरल्याण्ड लगायतका मुलुकहरु रहेका छन् ।

नेपालको हकमा समेत केही हदसम्म यो उपकरण प्रयोग गरिएको छ । कोरोना अवधिमा उपलब्ध स्रोतको पाँच गुणासम्म पुनरकर्जा दिने निर्णयले नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकबाट करिब रु. १५० अर्ब पुनरकर्जा प्रवाह भई वासलातमा वृद्धि हुन गएको थियो । हाल उक्त मोडालिटिमा अब पुनरकर्जा नदिने व्यवस्था गरिएसँगै पुनरकर्जा रकममा उल्लेख्य कमी आएको छ । चालु आर्थिक वर्षको दश महिनामा नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकले बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थालाई दिएको कर्जामा ९४ प्रतिशत (रु.२५४ अर्ब) ले कमी आएको छ । यद्यपि सोही अवधिमा बैंकको विदेशी विनिमय सञ्चितिमा करिब रु. २६२ अर्बले सुधार आएका कारण नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकको वासलातको आकार सामान्य रुपमा वृद्धि हुन गएको छ । 

Further Reading

https://www.bruegel.org/external-publication/finding-right-balance-sheet-quantitative-tightening-euro-area

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2023/741488/IPOL_STU(2023)741488_EN.pdf

https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2022/q3_federal_reserve    

https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/a-closer-look-at-quantitative-tightening-implications.html 

 

First Quarter Monetary Policy Review 2022/23 of Nepal

First Quarter Monetary Policy Review 2022/23

      Nepal Rastra Bank released its first quarter review of monetary policy on  November 27, 2022.  Here is a summary of the measures taken.

Stance and Measures of Monetary Policy

1. The stance of monetary policy of 2022-23 has been kept unchanged on the basis of the current economic situation. 

2. The targets as well as the projections adopted in the monetary policy of 2022-23 have also been kept unchanged.

3. The monetary instruments adopted in the monetary policy 2022-23 have been kept unchanged. The required reserve ratio has been kept unchanged at 4 percent and the bank rate unchanged at 8.5 percent.

4. Liquidity will be managed in a way that can facilitate smooth payment system, support the targeted credit flows and prevent further pressure on interest rate.

Regulatory Measures

5. A provision will be made whereby the banks and financial institutions can include the investment made in the debenture in the secondary market issued by agriculture-related public limited companies in the specified credit limit to be disbursed to agriculture sector.

6 . The spread rate of commercial banks will be reduced from 4.4 percent to 4 percent and the spread of development banks and finance companies will be reduced from 5 percent to 4.6 percent. It is expected to bring down the premium charged by banks and financial institutions while setting lending rate and maintain balance in lending rate. The provision regarding premium setting will also be regularly monitored.

7.  The microfinance financial institutions will be required to publish their base rate on a monthly basis from mid-February 2023.

8.  The penalties imposed on the banks and financial institutions in case of the non-compliance of credit to deposit (CD) ratio will be reviewed so as to include the liquidity risk also as the basis of such penalties.

9.  The current working capital loan guideline will be amended based on the suggestions received.

10. In view of the current pressure on liquidity, the penalties for the non-compliance of priority sector loan limits will be imposed from mid-January 2024 on the basis of the data of mid-July 2023. 

Highlights of Monetary Policy for 2022-23 for Nepal

Highlights of Monetary Policy for 2022-23 for Nepal

• Monetary policy stance is cautiously tightened.
• Focus on credit allocation to productive sector, access of MSMEs to credit and withdrawing the measures introduced during the COVID-19.  
• The main aim of the policy is to maintain price as well as external sector stability.

Photo from  : https://www.spotlightnepal.com/

 Monetary Measures

• Policy rate under the interest rate corridor increased by 1.5 percentage points to 7 percent. The floor as well as the ceiling also raised by 1.5 percentage points.
• Broad money supply is projected to grow by 12 percent and private sector credit is projected to grow by 12.6 percent.
• Bank rate increased to 8.5 percent.
• The repo/reverse repo as well as deposit auction under the interest rate corridor have been made rule based under certain conditions.
• Cash Reserve Ratio increased to 4 percent from 3 percent to be made effective from Mid-August 2022.
• Intraday liquidity facility taken by the banks can be extended to overnight by paying bank rate.
• Standing liquidity facility (SLF) for 5 days at bank rate.  But outstanding SLF is restricted to 1 percent of deposit at the bank at the end of previous week.
• Provision of Lending of the last resort (LOLR) facility by paying 2 percentage points penal to the bank rate.
• Statutory liquidity ratio(SLR) increased to 12 percent for the commercial banks and to 10 percent for the development banks as well as finance companies.

Financial Sector Programs

• Financial relaxations provided during the COVID will be reviewed as per the necessity.
• The recommendations from the Financial Sector Stability Review being carried out with the assistance of the IMF will be implemented.
• Provision will be made to reintroduce the counter cyclical capital buffer from mid-July 2023.
• Provision for the banks to include debenture in deposits will be continued till mid-July 2023.
• Large exposure framework will be prepared to identify the large borrowers of the banks. The existing provision regarding the single obligor limit will be revised.
• Macro stress test framework will be implemented.
• Provision for no additional penal interest rate will be made for the businesses who have taken loans up to Rs. 50 million and are not able to pay the principle as well as interest due by July 2022 if they pay such amount by Mid-October 2022.
• Provision of Interest rate differential will be made for the loans provided to productive sector and commercial sector.
• The Loan to value ratio (LTV) for personal type of loans with no specific purpose mentioned has been reduced to 30 percent for Kathmandu Valley and 40 percent for outside.  
• Rs. 40 million cap on margin lending per borrower has been scrapped. However, the cap of Rs. 120 million per borrower still applies. The risk weight for margin loans of less than or equal to Rs. 2.5 million has been reduced to 100 percent from 150 percent.
•  Provision will be made for card to card remittance transfer.
• Policy provision will be made for easing foreign direct investment, remittance inflows and external commercial borrowing by the banks.
• The existing provision of cash margin on letter of credit for imports will be gradually reviewed.
• Refinance facility will be directed to productive sector, micro enterprises, export sector and hard hit sector from the COVID-19.  The facility will be gradually reduced and will be made equal to the amount available in the refinance fund.
• The micro finance financial institutions are allowed to mobilize debenture equal to their capital fund at maximum.

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 The blogger can be reached at siddhabhatta@gmail.com

ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY ON ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY DURING COVID CRISIS

Permanent Link for this article is NRB Anniversary Publication available here   

The COVID-19 was a triple shock in the world economic system: a demand shock, a supply shock and a shock in the financial markets. However, the bold and cautious decisions of the central banks and governments have largely reduced the economic loss from the crisis and made a quick recovery successful. The prudent measures taken by the central banks have been successful in preventing the deterioration of the world economy and a prolonged stress as seen in the GFC. In this respect, the developed as well as emerging market economies heavily used non-conventional monetary policy tools such as quantitative easing, long term lending and forward guidance. The quantitative easing was used by many emerging market economies for the first time. The prudent mix of the toolbox and appropriate coordination with the other policies helped the early recovery in many economies and has safeguarded financial stability to a large extent.  For details see the pdf below.